PLAYOFF PREDICTION
NE Waterbury 2026 (2026ctwat) — predicted alliance selection & bracket from Monte Carlo (OPR), picks by EPA+OPR
Predicted Alliances
| Seed | Captain OPR (OPR rank) | Pick 1 | Pick 2 | EPA+OPR str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1 |
6328 Mechanical Advantage
OPR 300.1 (1)
|
176 Aces High
decline?
OPR 234.4 (2)
|
716 Who'sCTEKS
decline?
OPR 4.2 (27)
|
507.6 |
| A2 |
4909 Bionics
OPR 118.7 (3)
|
7127 LongMetal Robotics
decline?
OPR 91.0 (4)
|
5856 Bullbots
decline?
OPR 8.9 (25)
|
222.5 |
| A3 |
230 Gaelhawks
OPR 88.7 (5)
|
8085 MOJO
decline?
OPR 60.4 (9)
|
11464 Lancer Nation Robotics
decline?
OPR 11.1 (24)
|
166.3 |
| A4 |
558 Elm City Robo Squad
OPR 34.7 (11)
|
7694 THE IRON LIONS
decline?
OPR 74.4 (6)
|
2064 The Panther Project
decline?
OPR 12.9 (22)
|
118.5 |
| A5 |
228 GUS
OPR 67.4 (7)
|
173 RAGE Robotics ⚙️
decline?
OPR 61.2 (8)
|
2785 Prometheus
decline?
OPR 20.9 (17)
|
135.7 |
| A6 |
10245 WAMS
OPR 17.2 (20)
|
3654 TechTigers
decline?
OPR 48.8 (10)
|
999 MechaRAMS
decline?
OPR 16.8 (21)
|
90.1 |
| A7 |
1099 DiscoTechs
OPR 20.0 (18)
|
4572 Barlow Robotics
decline?
OPR 22.6 (15)
|
1071 Team MAX
decline?
OPR 21.3 (16)
|
77.5 |
| A8 |
10592 Stamford Cyber-Hird TSA
OPR 18.5 (19)
|
8889 Project W
decline?
OPR 25.1 (13)
|
7153 Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)
decline?
OPR 24.0 (14)
|
76.8 |
Predicted Declines
forced
230 Gaelhawks OPR 88.7 (5)
would decline A2 (captain 4909 OPR 118.7 (3)) & stay a captain
[EPA+OPR: pick 87.7 vs captain 123.6, best alt 84.2]
forced
228 GUS OPR 67.4 (7)
would decline A3 (captain 230 OPR 88.7 (5)) & stay a captain
[EPA+OPR: pick 63.9 vs captain 87.7, best alt 62.6]
forced
6933 Archytas OPR 30.3 (12)
would decline A7 (captain 1099 OPR 20.0 (18)) & stay a captain
[EPA+OPR: pick 35.9 vs captain 20.2, best alt 30.8]
forced
5746 Human Error OPR 12.3 (23)
would decline A1 (captain 6328 OPR 300.1 (1)) & stay a captain
[EPA+OPR: pick 13.4 vs captain 275.8, best alt 11.7]
🏆
Predicted Event Winner
Alliance 1 —
6328, 176, 716
Playoff Bracket (double elimination)
| Match | Matchup | Win prob | Predicted winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match 1 | A1 (507.6) vs A8 (76.8) | 100% / 0% | A1 |
| Match 2 | A4 (118.5) vs A5 (135.7) | 24% / 76% | A5 |
| Match 3 | A2 (222.5) vs A7 (77.5) | 100% / 0% | A2 |
| Match 4 | A3 (166.3) vs A6 (90.1) | 99% / 1% | A3 |
| Match 5 · Lower | A8 (76.8) vs A4 (118.5) | 6% / 94% | A4 |
| Match 6 · Lower | A7 (77.5) vs A6 (90.1) | 30% / 70% | A6 |
| Match 7 · Upper | A1 (507.6) vs A5 (135.7) | 100% / 0% | A1 |
| Match 8 · Upper | A2 (222.5) vs A3 (166.3) | 98% / 2% | A2 |
| Match 9 · Lower | A4 (118.5) vs A3 (166.3) | 4% / 96% | A3 |
| Match 10 · Lower | A6 (90.1) vs A5 (135.7) | 5% / 95% | A5 |
| Match 11 · Upper Final | A1 (507.6) vs A2 (222.5) | 100% / 0% | A1 |
| Match 12 · Lower | A3 (166.3) vs A5 (135.7) | 89% / 11% | A3 |
| Match 13 · Lower Final | A2 (222.5) vs A3 (166.3) | 98% / 2% | A2 |
| Finals | A1 (507.6) vs A2 (222.5) | 100% / 0% | A1 |
Predicted Event Standings
| Place | Alliance | Teams |
|---|---|---|
| 1st 🥇 | A1 | 6328, 176, 716 |
| 2nd 🥈 | A2 | 4909, 7127, 5856 |
| 3rd 🥉 | A3 | 230, 8085, 11464 |
| 4th | A5 | 228, 173, 2785 |
| 5–6 | A4 | 558, 7694, 2064 |
| 5–6 | A6 | 10245, 3654, 999 |
| 7–8 | A7 | 1099, 4572, 1071 |
| 7–8 | A8 | 10592, 8889, 7153 |
Captains = top 8 by predicted rank; picks go to the best-available team by EPA+OPR following the event's snake draft order. A pick is predicted to decline only when the selecting captain is clearly weak and the pick would still secure a captaincy with an obviously stronger partner. Playoff results are deterministic (stronger alliance advances); percentages are win probabilities.